Kentucky Derby Betting Angles presented by FanDuel: Rookies vs. Veterans

Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher has started more horses in the Kentucky Derby than any other trainer in history, but his 2-for-64 record equates to a three percent success rate. Compare that to career statistics showing 23 percent wins from starts and more than $483 million in earnings by horses he’s saddled in North America, making him the all-time leader in that category.

Prior to going out on his own in 1996, Pletcher worked as an assistant to another Hall of Fame horseman, D. Wayne Lukas, who has the second highest number of Kentucky Derby starters and sports a 4-for-49 record. Both trainers have prided themselves on getting horses into the Derby starting gate and their owners into the big dance held annually on the first Saturday in May.

Lukas started five horses in the Derby in 1996, when Grindstone gave him his third victory in the classic race, and he had three runners five different years and two runners on six occasions. While multiple starters may improve your chances of winning, it doesn’t do your win percentage any good. Considering those multi-horse entries, Lukas won four Derbies in the 29 years he’s had a runner (including 20 years in a row, from 1981-2000) – a 14 percent success rate.

Pletcher had his first Derby starter in 2000 (Impeachment, third to Fusaichi Pegasus), and he’s had a runner every year since then, with the lone exception of 2003. This will be his 21^st consecutive year with a Kentucky Derby starter, topping his former boss. He’s had five runners twice (2007 and 2013), four runners five times (2000, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2021), three runners four times, and two runners eight times. All told, Pletcher has been successful in two of the 23 years he’s run in the Derby, or nine percent of the time.

The trainer with the most starts without a Kentucky Derby win is a third Hall of Famer and the all-time leader in career victories (10,488 at last count), Steve Asmussen, who is 0-for-25 since running in his first Derby in 2001. Asmussen started three runners one year (2017), and two runners on five occasions, so his winless record extends to 18 different years. He is sixth among trainers with the most Kentucky Derby starts.

Between Pletcher, Lukas, and Asmussen, that’s a lot of Derby experience, but not a lot of success in America’s most famous horse race. Between the three of them, they’ve captured six Derbies from a combined 138 starters.

In Kentucky Derby 150, Pletcher is sending out Fierceness, the reigning 2-year-old champion and morning line favorite off his powerful victory in the G1 Florida Derby. Lukas is running Just Steel, a longshot looking for his first graded stakes win, and Asmussen will saddle Track Phantom, a solid runner-up behind Derby second choice Sierra Leone earlier this year in the G2 Risen Star Stakes.

Two other trainers with horses in this year’s race, Hall of Famer Bill Mott and future Hall of Famer Brad Cox, have recorded one Derby win each. Neither of their horses finished first across the wire. Mott’s victory with Country House in 2019 came via the disqualification of Maximum Security for interference on the stretch turn. Cox won with Mandaloun – long after the 2021 race was run – when first-place finisher Medina Spirit was disqualified for failing a post-race drug test. Cox (with a 1-for-9 Derby record) has two contenders this year in Catching Freedom (winner of the G2 Louisiana Derby) and Just a Touch (second to Sierra Leone in the G1 Blue Grass), while Mott (1-for-12 in the Derby) will send out G2 Wood Memorial winner Resilience.

Two other trainers, Chad Brown and Ken McPeek, have made multiple attempts in the Derby, Brown having one second and one third from seven starters since 2013. He has two runners, the aforementioned Sierra Leone and G3 Tampa Bay Derby winner Domestic Product. McPeek, with one second from nine starts in the Derby, will saddle Mystik Dan, the G3 Southwest winner on a muddy track at Oaklawn.

Saffie Joseph Jr., trainer of Catalytic, has started two in the Derby, and Danny Gargan, who has Dornoch and Society Man entered, is 0-for-1.

Eight trainers with horses entered (including one on the also-eligible list) are Kentucky Derby “rookies.” They are Whitworth Beckman (Honor Marie), Daisuke Takayanagi (T O Password), Yoshito Yahagi (Forever Young), Larry Demeritte (West Saratoga), Michael McCarthy (Endlessly), Phil D’Amato (Stronghold), John Ennis (Epic Ride), and Jeff Engler (also eligible Mugatu).

Of the two Japanese trainers, Yoshito Yahagi is  by far the more accomplished, winning two Breeders’ Cup races at Del Mar in 2021, taking Japan’s Triple Crown with Contrail in 2020, and having success in international races in Australia, Hong Kong, Dubai and Saudi Arabia.

Of the U.S.-based trainers, McCarthy and D’Amato stand out.

McCarthy, who won the 2021 Preakness (G1) with Rombauer, has recorded 16 Grade 1 victories since 2007. Though Endlessly is his first official Kentucky Derby starter, he gained Derby experience while working as an assistant to Todd Pletcher.

D’Amato, a former assistant to Mike Mitchell – who was best known for his success with claiming horses – has won 19 Grade 1 races since 2014, the majority on turf. Stronghold, winner of the G1 Santa Anita Derby, will be his first Kentucky Derby starter.

First-time Kentucky Derby trainers have had considerable success, especially since the year 2000, when Fusaichi Pegasus gave Hall of Famer Neil Drysdale a Derby win with his first runner. After that came first-time Derby winners Barclay Tagg (Funny Cide, 2003), John Servis (Smarty Jones, 2004), John Shirreffs (Giacomo, 2005), Michael Matz (Barbaro, 2006), Rick Dutrow Jr. (Big Brown, 2008), Chip Wooley (Mine That Bird, 2009), Art Sherman (California Chrome, 2014), Brad Cox (Mandaloun, 2021), and Eric Reed (Rich Strike, 2022).

That means 10 of the last 24 Kentucky Derbies (42 percent) have been won by horses whose trainers were in the race for the first time. That suggests a trainer’s experience at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May is not all that important.

Winning jockeys

John Velazquez, who will be aboard Fierceness for his 26^th Derby mount, has a huge edge over his fellow riders in Kentucky Derby experience and wins. It took 13 tries for Velazquez to win his first Derby, aboard Animal Kingdom in 2011. His first Derby ride was 1996. Since that initial win he’s scored with Always Dreaming in 2017 and Authentic in 2020. Only Mike Smith (two wins in 28 tries) and Bill Shoemaker (4-for-26) have ridden in more Derbies.

Eddie Arcaro and Bill Hartack lead in wins among Derby jockeys, Arcaro going 5-for-21 and Hartack 5-for-12.

Of the others with Derby mounts this year, Joel Rosario has the most experience, with 12 mounts and one win (Orb, 2013). Luis Saez has had 10 mounts and did finish first aboard Maximum Security before being disqualified in 2019.

Two other jockeys are credited with Derby wins, though they were second across the finish. Flavien Prat was elevated to first aboard Country House in 2019 upon the DQ of Maximum Security, giving him a record of one first, one second and three thirds from six Derby mounts. Florent Geroux and Mandaloun were awarded victory after the drug disqualification of Medina Spirit in 2021.

First-time jockeys in the Derby have not been as successful as first-time trainers. Sonny Leon won aboard Rich Strike in his maiden voyage in 2022, Mario Gutierrez won with I’ll Have Another in his first try in 2012, and Stewart Elliott won aboard Smarty Jones in 2004. You have to go back to Ron Franklin and Spectacular Bid to find a first-time Derby jockey in the winner’s circle.

This year’s Derby “rookie” riders are Keith Asmussen (Just Steel), Ben Curtis (Honor Marie), Ryusei Sakai (T O Password), and Antonio Fresu (Stronghold).